Open Internet Contingency Checklist Before Nov. 9

Media buyers can use this open internet contingency checklist before The Trade Desk reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 9. Management guided revenue to at least $650 million, about 12% below the $739 million of a year earlier, while Roku, Amazon and Magnite grew ad revenue. Stress-test DSP concentration before deciding what a soft outlook should change.

Updated November 8, 2026

What should you check first?

The Motley Fool’s Nov. 9 preview notes shares have lost nearly 89% since ending 2024 at $117.53. Gross spend climbed mostly because of campaigns from new clients, partly offset by lower spending from existing clients.

A quarter that hits $650 million mainly from new clients and overseas growth might still leave the biggest part of the business under pressure. U.S. share fell to about 83% from 86%, which The Motley Fool says implies U.S. revenue was roughly flat. Video, including connected TV, was a low-50s share; mobile was a high-20s share.

How do you build an open internet contingency?

No source gives a budget split. Use the published triggers as decision rules.

1. Name spend in CPG and autos, about a quarter of the business. Zacks reports that CPG brands face geopolitical tensions, inflation and consumer softness. Automotive is an area of strength overall, but it is also impacted by tariffs. The third-quarter guide assumes no meaningful macro improvement, and advertisers are prioritizing cheaper media alternatives.
2. Watch $650 million first. The Zacks consensus is $650.7 million of revenue and 26 cents a share, down 42.2% year over year. A miss would be the second straight quarter under the company’s floor, after second-quarter revenue of $715 million came in about $35 million below its floor.
3. Set the fourth-quarter trigger on published marks. Another 12% drop would put a floor near $745 million, The Motley Fool writes. TIKR’s fourth-quarter math puts a $650 million third quarter at about $699 million, 17.5% below last year’s $847 million. Under about $745 million, declines may still be getting steeper.
4. Redirect flexible connected-TV budgets toward paths already growing in the table below. Amazon does not break out its DSP.
5. Note the Sept. 3 plan to cut about 15% of staff, with about $39 million to $51 million of charges this quarter. TIKR says those savings should show up in the fourth-quarter outlook.

Where is open-internet spend still growing?

Nate Olmstead said connected TV and audio both grew at double-digit rates, The Motley Fool reported, while revenue rose just 3%. That outlet adds that the slowdown probably sat in mobile, display or the rest of video.

Zacks reported audio at approximately 7% and the fastest-growing channel for four consecutive quarters. Second-quarter CTV revenue in EMEA and APAC rose more than 50%.

Roku, Magnite and Amazon are cleaner checks on video money than in-app growth. The same open-versus-closed choice is covered in Fox and Roku’s open CTV pledge versus a tighter stack.

What if guidance stays soft?

If guidance stays soft, retail media is already on the platform. Participating retailers represented more than 80% of U.S. retail sales. The Trade Desk said the latest enhancements to Zuma’s modeling and forecasting capabilities generated an average 32% improvement in cost-per-acquisition performance in initial results. Treat that figure as a platform result, not your forecast.

If the fourth-quarter guide fails that test, shift flexible display and mobile dollars and keep Joint Business Plan talks live. The company had 217 clients with those plans in the second quarter, up 38% year over year. Revenues under those Joint Business Plans grew at six times the company’s overall revenue growth rate.